What are the Chances of lasting peace in Northern Ireland?
An essay in reaction to the IRA`s announcement of decommissioning
In 1996 the London musician Billy Bragg wrote a song about Belfast in reaction to the IRA’s declaration of a permanent ceasefire. The closing line of this song was: Merry Christmas! War is over… in a northern industrial town. However, war was not over.
Many “milestones” have been passed in the course of the Northern Irish peace process – and many hopes have been destroyed afterwards. There is new hope now, and a further milestone reached. On October 23, 2001 the IRA declared the decommissioning of their weapons begun. Since the Good Friday Agreement was signed on April 10, 1998, decommissioning has been the crucial topic within the peace process. unionists have always regarded it as a precondition for any further step towards peace. Now that this precondition is fulfilled, is there any prospect of lasting peace in Northern Ireland?
In order to come to an answer to that question we, basically, have to consider two different levels of Northern Irish society, individual life and the political sector. What works on the private level might not work in politics and vice versa. Lasting peace, however, can only be achieved if all parts of society not only believe in the possibility of such a peace but also work hand in hand to solve all those problems which used to cause violence and tension among the opposing communities. To what extend, though, are people of both communities in Northern Ireland really ready to fight for lasting peace in their country?
Late summer and autumn were marked by high tension and violence in Belfast and other parts of Northern Ireland. Loyalist mobs harassed Catholic children and their parents on their way to Holy Cross primary school, which led through Protestant territory. There were riots between loyalist and nationalist youths and the police in North Belfast. Bomb threats all over the country caused spreading fear among both communities. It is hard to believe that those people actually long for peace. On the other hand, it is certainly just a small minority of people who are involved in those violent activities or even support them. Surveys say that a great majority of people in Northern Ireland believe that the chances of peace have become better during the last five years. Obviously, most Northern Irish people long for peace then. What, however, are the reasons for this outbreak of violence in the last months?
These reasons are to be found on the political sector. In July 2001 David Trimble resigned as first minister of the Northern Irish executive since the question of decommissioning had remained unsolved. Several ultimatums were put on the devolution government to come to an agreement and get to work again, otherwise direct rule from Westminster would be reintroduced. For four months, then, insecurity has been reigning politics in the province. The re-implementation of direct rule from Westminster would have meant a major setback in the peace process. This instability of politics provoked a regaining of power of extremist forces among both communities. People obviously began to lose faith in the forthcoming of the peace process.
The decision of the IRA to put a number of its weapons beyond further use was met with enthusiasm not only in Northern Ireland; it certainly is a significant step towards a stable Northern Irish government. Nevertheless, stability is far from being achieved yet. Although 70% of the assembly voted for Trimble as first minister, he failed to get the majority of unionist votes, which was also required. In a second vote Trimble could only gain that majority because three Alliance Party members redesignated themselves as unionists for this vote. The great overall majority of votes for Trimble, though, and above all a 100% support among nationalists, shows that most politicians are willing to work hand in hand in order to secure the peace process, and that they are indeed believing in the possibility of a lasting peace in Northern Ireland.
If decommissioning of the IRA’s weapons was a precondition for unionists to continue the peace process, a stable government and an assembly in which all parties work together in order to calm down tension in Northern Ireland is a precondition for lasting peace in the country. Insecurity of the political situation strengthens extremist forces within both communities. Obviously, unionists within the assembly, above all Ian Paisley and his supporters, have to be convinced that it is their turn now to do a step towards peace in return. If some of the unionists manage to overcome their stubbornness, the peace process will be on the track again and Northern Ireland nearer to lasting peace than ever.
